Monday, September 21, 2009

ATLANTIC DIVISION PREVIEW

The toughest division just got tougher. Not only does the Atlantic Division host the defending Stanley Cup champs but offseason moves saw future hall-of-famer Chris Pronger and superstar scoring Marian Gaborik join this already tough division. Oh yeah, and the best goaltender of all-time still roams the net in New Jersey. Two straight years have seen the Atlantic send 4 teams to the playoff and we will see that again this season.

1.) Pittsburgh Penguins
Rear View Mirror: The Pittsburgh Penguins used their resilience all the way to a Stanley Cup championship. To be five points out of a playoff spot with 25 games to play, to come back from 2-0 vs. both the Capitals and the Red Wings in the playoff series, and to win a tough Game 6 and Game 7 to capture the franchise first cup since 1992, is the epitome of resilience. The Penguins offensively were led by their two superstars, Sidney Crosby (77 GP, 33G-70A-103P) and Art Ross/Conn Smyth winner Evgeni Malkin (82 GP, 35G-78A-113P). They also picked up a much needed offensive boast with trade deadline acquisitions Bill Guerin (12 pts in 17 games) and Chris Kunitz (18 pts in 20 games). The champions were also led by rookie head coach Dan Bylsma, who replaced Michel Therrien, and with his aggressive style led the team to an 18-3-4 record down the stretch.
Offseason Ins: D Jay Mckee (STL: 69 GP, 185 BkS), G Brent Johnson (WSH: 12-6-2, 2.81 GAA, .908 save %), LW Mike Rupp (NJ: 72 GP, 136 PIM), RW Chris Conner (DAL: 38 GP, 3G-10A-13P)
Offseason Outs: D Rob Scuderi (164 BkS), D Hal Gill (78 Hits), RW Petr Sykora (25 G), RW Miroslav Satan 36 Pts), D Philippe Boucher (+10), C Mike Zigomanis (63.0 FO%), G Mathieu Garon (2 W)
What Makes Them Tick: When a team has two of the top three scorers in their lineup it’s hard not to point out the obvious: they are a team that is hard to match up against. Both Crosby and Malkin followed up their successful regular seasons with even better postseasons showing that these young stars were ready to take the next step in their development. Also having a bounce back year was third line center Jordan Staal, who followed his sophomore slump (12 goals, -5) with a productive year (22 goals, -5) as the shutdown center. While his numbers weren’t even good for the top twenty in goaltending stats, former first overall pick Marc-Andre Fleury just continues to win when it matters the most, with a 31-18 career playoff record. Defensively, the Penguins will get a boost now that Sergei Gonchar will be available to play from week 1. It is no coincidence that the Penguins were a better team and made their surge when Gonchar returned from shoulder surgery. A top line pairing for Gonchar and hit man Brooks Orpik, who was 2nd in the league with 309 hits, is top notch.
What Could Make Them Go Boom: With 204 games in the past two seasons and their top players not only being asked to shoulder the load of the team, but also their entire countries in an Olympic year, could have an effect on this team. We see it every year the team that makes the Stanley Cup struggles to find a groove early. Just ask the Penguins from last year and they will admit they needed time to find their swagger. Though this team has some youth on their side, it is bound to catch up to them at some point, especially with team leaders Crosby, Malkin and Gonchar having to play big parts in their respective country’s bid for a gold medal. Very rarely does a coach, with no prior head coaching experience, step in with 25 games to play and go onto win a Stanley Cup. In fact, it has only happened one other time when Al MacNeil in 1971 took over the Canadiens to win the Stanley Cup as a rookie midseason replacement. So how the 39-year-old Bylsma will fair in a full season worth of game planning, balancing his ice time, and dealing with the stress of being a coach will be a key to this team success or downfall.
Player to Watch: With the injury to Sergei Gonchar last season, Kristopher Letang was forced into playing top line minutes in only his second season in the league, and Letang flourished. The 22-year-old defenseman scored 10 goals and assisted on 23 others. His development allowed the Penguins to trade highly touted defenseman Ryan Whitney for much needed scoring. The sky is the limit for this mobile puck moving defenseman, who also went on to contribute 13 points in the playoffs. Letang will be a restricted free agent next season and is off to prove he can be a top line defenseman in this league.
Prediction: Back-to-back championships are hard to come by, and there is a reason why it has not happened in the NHL since the Red Wings of 1997-1998 and in sports in general since the Patriots did it back in 2003-2004. It is hard because every team now puts their best game against you, and even makes off-season moves just to match up better to the formula used to win that championship. The Penguins are the favorites to win this tough division because, let’s face it, when you are the Champs you are that on paper until the puck drops. I would not be surprised to see them start out slow like last year, and GM Fred Shero has twice shown us that he can get creative at the trade deadline (Marian Hossa and Kunitz/Guerin) to give them the necessary push for the playoffs.

2.) Philadelphia Flyers
The Philadelphia Flyers once again bowed out to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup playoffs, an interstate rivalry that is one of the best in the league. They Flyers also once again battled inconsistency and injuries all season. The orange and black were led by two young centers that seem ready to be added among the elite centers of the league. Jeff Carter finished 2nd in the league in goals (46) and first in the team in points (84) right behind him was captain Mike Richards whose two-way hard-nosed style reminded Flyers fans of the great Bobby Clarke. Among his 30 goals, seven of them were scored shorthanded including two 5-on-3. Speaking of shorthanded situations, they scored 16 total shorthanded goals, and it wasn’t until the last game of the season that the Flyers did not give up a shorthanded goal. Rounding out a balanced scoring attack, the Flyers were the only team with six 25-goal scorers, was Simon Gagne who had a relatively healthy season playing in 79 games and scoring 34 goals, and rugged winger Scott Hartnell who had career high in goals (30) and points (60). Injuries to the defensive core saw many players come in and out to round out the top 6, but the core was veteran Kimmo Timonen (43 pts) and youthful Bryadon Coburn (28 pts).
Offseason Ins: D Chris Pronger (ANH: 82 GP, 11G-37A-48P), G Ray Emery (KHL: 36 GP, 2.12 GAA), C Ian Laperriere (COL: 74 GP, 7G-12A-19, 163 PIM), Brian Boucher (SJ: 12-6-3, 2.18 GAA, .917 save%)
Offseason Outs: G Martin Biron (29 W), RW Mike Knuble (11 PPG), RW Joffrey Lupul (25 G), G Antero Niittymaki (.912 save%) , D Andrew Alberts (157 Hits), D Luca Sbisa (7 A)
What Makes Them Tick: On Draft day this year the Flyers went out and acquired Chris Pronger, the man many thought was born to wear the Orange and Black. That acquisition sent a message to the team that, even though knocked out by the one two punch of Crosby and Malkin the last two postseasons, they are ready for them this time. With the future hall-of-famer Pronger in the mix, the Flyers top 4 defensemen rank as one of the top in the Eastern Conference. Combine that with a talented and balanced scoring attack is why the Flyers are the sexy pick to represent the East in the Stanley Cup. As I mentioned earlier, special teams once again will be an asset to this team that not only scores shorthanded but ranked 6th in the league in both penalty kill (83%) and power play (22.5%).
What Could Make Them Go Boom: When we last saw Ray Emery playing in the NHL he was beating up teammates, banished to the AHL and then ultimately bought out of his new three year contract from the Ottawa Senators. Now Razor will be looked at as the biggest question mark surrounding a team with so much talent. People often forget that this is a goalie that has appeared in more Stanley Cup appearances (one with Ottawa in 2007) than the two castoffs (Biron and Niittymaki) combined, and the coach that was fired (John Paddock) because of his antics was on board for this move. The 26-year-old goalie with the images of boxers on his helmet will be the ultimate high risk high reward for this team, and most likely the key to which direction this season will head for the Flyers.
Player To Watch: Daniel Briere signed a huge eight-year contract and now, heading into his third year, it could be his biggest in the NHL. Last year the 31-year-old center played a career low 29 games because of injuries to his abdomen and groin. Although the sample size was small, Briere still had an impact on the power play with 10 of his 25 points coming on special teams. This former All-Star and five-time 25 or more goal scorer, has done everything he can to prove in the offseason that he is healthy and ready to contribute to this team. With the accelerated development of both Carter and Richards, Briere won’t be asked to be the go-to guy that he was thought of when brought here, but will still be asked to play major minutes on the top power play unit and fill in for the goals lost this offseason (Knuble 27G and Lupul 25G). The Quebec native had some end-of-the-season chemistry with talented center Claude Giroux. Coach John Stevens sees his lines as pairs and has already said that these two speedy players will be a pair. Daniel Briere needs to have a healthy productive season, if not it will be tough for the Flyers to fit a new piece in his place or even to try to unload his hefty salary cap hit.
Prediction: Ray Emery is spectacular, Chris Pronger lives up to the hype, and the team remains relatively healthy. If two of these three things happen, the Flyers will be a lock for a playoff spot and a team to beat in the playoffs. If two out of three do not happen, it could be a long season for the Orange and Black. Emery is the biggest question mark, but since he is only signed for one season, and a couple of proven goalies (Nabakov, Turco, Giguere) being on the market, don’t count the Flyers out to make a deadline push for a goalie. Chris Pronger should live up to the hype. He has shown no signs of slowing down and has led two teams to the Stanley Cup Finals in his first season on the squad. Health will be the biggest question mark for Gagne, considering he has already reported groin issues. Richard’s style of play leads to the chance of injury also, and Carter’s deadly wrist shot was not there in the playoffs due to an injury. The Flyers will contend for the division crown and will be a good pick to represent the East in the Stanley Cup Finals.

3.) New Jersey Devils
Rear View Mirror: The Devils played 51 games without all-world goalie Martin Brodeur, and still survived the storm to improbably win the Atlantic Division. The season for the Devils, though, ended in devastating fashion in an Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 7 loss to the Hurricanes. In a season that saw Martin Brodeur break the all-time NHL leader in regular season wins by a goaltender, it was really the spectacular play from backup goalie Scott Clemmensen, who went 25-13-1 in the 40 games he played with a 2.39 GAA and .917 save percentage. Offensively, Zach Parise flourished in the up tempo Brent Sutter style, the former first round pick ranked 5th in the league in scoring (94 pts) and was a legitimate Hart trophy candidate with his 45 goals and was still responsible in his own end (+30). Parise created some great chemistry with his top line mates Travis Zajac (82 GP, 20G-42A-62P) and Jaime Langenbruner (81 GP, 29G-40A-69P). The Devils always seem to find players that come out of nowhere to fit their defensive style of play and Johnny Oduya (82 GP, 7G-22A-29P, +21) and Paul Martin (73 GP, 5G-28A-33P, +21) seem to be the next crop of good defensive players to don the Red and Black.
Offseason Ins: G Yan Denis (NYI: 10-17-3, 2.86 GAA, .910 save%), D Cory Murphy (FLA/TB: 32 GP, 5G-11A-16P), C Rod Pelley (AHL: 75 GP, 15G-23A-38P), RW Nicklas Bergfors (AHL: 66 GP, 22G-29A-51P)
Offseason Outs: RW Brian Gionta (20 G), C John Madden (23 Pts), C Bobby Holik (62 GP), G Scott Clemmensen (25 Wins), RW Mike Rupp (136 PIM)
What Makes Them Tick: Martin Brodeur has been the face of the franchise for 16 NHL season, last year was the first, since a lockout shorten 1994-1995 season, he did not play at least 65 games (he had played 70 in 11 out of the last 12 seasons). One could ask if he is wearing down at the age of 37 considering how he allowed four or more goals in three of the last four games of the first round loss to Carolina. However, he still went on to record five shutouts in his 31 games played. Zach Parise is the new franchise player up front and will again be relied on for big time minutes along with his line mates Zajac and Lagenbruner. Lagenbruner, the 34-year-old captain of the team, had career highs in every offensive category including an amazing +25 and has to build or even match that kind of production for this team to be successful. Returning to the bench for the Devils is 1995; Stanley Cup Champion Jacques Lemaire’s defensive first attitude will help the Devils maintain their identity in a team that did finish 4th overall in team defense (2.52 GAA).
What Could Make Them Go Boom: I would normally say an injury to Martin Brodeur in this section but the organization showed me up, and brought in a capable backup again in former Islander Yann Danis. What could detract this talented offensive team is a clash between the old styles with the new. No one can argue that Brent Sutter’s up tempo more wide open style of play allowed Parise, Zajac, Langenbruner and even Patrik Elias have career statistical years. We all know these players have the talent but many times were asked to play defense first. This will be the case on a Lemaire coached team. It will also be tough to supplant the loss of both long time Devils Brian Gionta and John Madden. Gionta was not scoring at the same pace he was earlier in his career, but still notched 20 goals last season and same with Madden, who although some say lost a step (a career worst -7 last season), was still was a big part of the penalty kill and third line shutdown unit.
Player to Watch: It was a tough time deciding between free agent disappointment Brian Rolston and former captain Patrik Elias in this category because both guys have a lot to prove in different ways this year. I had to go with the Devils all-time leading scorer, who will be out 3-6 weeks to start the season. The 33-year-old Elias had his best goal scoring season since the 2004-05 lockout, notching 31 goals. He most dangerous on the power play with a career-best 12 goals and tying a career mark with 31 power play points. This season the team leader will be asked to play primarily at center on a team that is thin down the middle. Coming off hip/groin surgery it will be important to this team to have Elias healthy and contributing.
Prediction: The Devils want their young talent to step up, and not have to depend on the likes of Rolston, Shanahan and Pandolfo to score many goals. In comes a new crop of fast and capable players hoping to make the team this year (Rod Pelley, Nicklas Bergfors, and Ilkka Pikkarainen) and if they fulfill their potential, the Devils will be a tough team to defend. Martin Brodeur needs to prove that last season was a fluke and not a look at what to expect from the aging future Hall-of-Fame goalie. I believe Brodeur bounces back and Parise, once again, is a Hart trophy contender. The one thing holding them back from winning this tough division is depending on Rolston and Elias who both are big question marks heading into this season.

4.) New York RangersRear View Mirror: The Rangers finished strong under the new direction of fiery head coach John Tortorella but were unable to hold a 3-1 lead against the Capitals in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals when they lost in unromantic fashion in Game 7. The backbone once again was Henrik Lundqvust, who for the third straight season played at least 70 games, and for the fourth straight won at least 30. The teams also seem to get their spark when they brought back prodigal son Sean Avery from the waiver heap. Dallas’s sloppy seconds was the Rangers gain as Avery collected 12 points in the 18 games with the Rangers.
Offseason Ins: RW Marian Gaborik (MIN: 17 GP, 13G-10A-23P), LW Chris Higgins (MTL: 57 GP, 12G-11A-23P), LW Ales Kotalik (BUF/EDM: 75 GP, 20G-23A-43P), LW Donald Brashear (WSH: 63 GP, 121 PIM), C Brian Boyle (LAK: 28 GP, 4G), RW Enver Lisin (PHX: 48 GP, 13G-8A-21P), D Matt Gilroy (HE: 45 GP, 8G-29A-37P), D Ryan McDonagh(WCHA: 36 GP, 5G-11A-16P), C Vaclav Prospal (TB: 82 GP, 19G-26A-45P), C Tyler Arnason (COL: 71 GP, 5G-17A-22P)
Offseason Outs: C Scott Gomez (58 Pts), D Paul Mara (76 GP), D Derek Morris (4 PPP), C Blair Betts (49.3 FO%), LW Markus Naslund (24 G), RW Nik Antropov (13 pts in 18 GP), LW Fredrik Sjostrom (3 SHP), RW Colton Orr (193 PIM), LW Lauri Korpikoski (14 Pts)
What Makes Them Tick: King Henrik has earned the nickname for his stellar play for the Rangers and pretty much being the only reason this team contends for a playoff spot instead of a lottery spot. The Olympic Gold medal winner will have a difficult task this season balancing the amount of games he plays for the blue shirts and the important piece he plays in his country’s defense of their Olympic Gold. The development of young players like RW Ryan Callahan (22 goals last season), C Brandon Dubinsky (Although holding out for a new contract), D Marc Staal (15 Pts), and D Dan Girardi (22 pts) are encouraging for a team that usually relies on free agent acquisitions. These are all players you can build a team around and have shown that, when asked, can step into a prominent role.
What Could Make Them Go Boom: Another offseason full of changes for a team trying to find their identity post Jagr. Out goes free agent disappointment Scott Gomez and in comes widely talented but often injured Marian Gaborik. Since the lockout, the 27-year-old two-time All-Star has averaged .59 goals per game which ranks second only to Alexander Ovechkin. The problem is that, in his 8 year career, he has averaged only 62.3 games played a season. So last year’s 17 games played brought his average down. It also will be interesting to see with so many new faces and a fairly new head coach with the knack of getting under his players skin mesh. Defensively they are still very thin, relying on defensive liabilities like Wade Redden (-5 last season) and Michal Rozsival (-7 last season), and the unproven abilities of Hobey Baker-winner Matt Gilroy, Bobby Sanguinetti and/or Ryan McDonagh.
Player to Watch: Mark Messier is back as special assistant to Glenn Sather. I would watch him to make a real impact on this club. Haha, not really but I had to throw that in there. Chris Higgins was not just a player brought in to save the team millions in cap hit, so they can go out and acquiring another front line scorer. Oh wait, yes he was, but he still is going to be key to this team’s offensive woes. The Rangers ranked 28th in offense last season (2.44 GPG) and addressed that need with the offensive acquisitions this offseason with Higgins leading the pack. The New York native has proven he can score in this league by the fact that he had three straight seasons of 20+ goals until last year’s injury plagued 12 goal campaigns. The former first round pick of the Canadians and All-American at Yale will be asked to show he is worth all those accolades for the Rangers only signed him to a one-year deal.
Prediction: This division will get four teams in the playoffs again with the Rangers being the fourth. Lundqvist is one of the top goaltenders in this league, but if the Rangers are smart they will give him more rest knowing the Olympics are looming for the Swede. Gaborik will be a treat for the east coast fans to watch and who did not get to see him play out West. Rangers’ fans remember him as he scored 5 goals against them in a game back in December of 2007. The health worries me like everyone else, but the team can’t score any less goals than they did last season. Overall, they will float around the 8-10 spot all season and then when the team starts to gel more towards the end they will secure that 8th and final playoff spot.

5.) New York Islander
Rear View Mirror: So the only thing that went well for the New York Islanders last season is they won the NHL lottery, with an NHL-worst 61 points, and earned the right to select franchise player John Tavares. In a season that saw their starting goalie, Rick DiPietro play only five games with a knee injury, the Islanders shifted perennial minor leaguers Joey MacDonald and Yann Danis into the net. The team’s struggle to score goals (2.42 GAA) showed in the fact they were led in scoring by defenseman Mark Streit. The free agent signee was one of the lone bright spots of the team. The All-star’s 16 goals and 40 assists showed the league that he is not just a power play specialist but also, managing to be a +6 with 25 minutes of ice time a game, is a tribute to his steady two way play.
Offseason Ins: C John Tavares (OHL: 56 GP, 58 G-46A-104P) G Dwayne Roloson (EDM: 28-24-9, 2.77 GAA, .915 Save %), G Martin Biron (PHI: 29-19-5, 2.76 GAA, .915 Save %)
Offseason Outs: G Joey MacDonald (14 W), G Yann Danis (10 W), C Mike Sillinger (Class player), LW Andy Hilbert (11 G), LW Dean McAmmond (16 Pts)
What Makes Them Tick: Confetti fell to the floor of the Nassau Coliseum when the Islanders drafted John Tavares, thus shifting the franchise from often injured Rick DiPietro to the fresh faced 19-year-old scoring sensation. The résumé of the 6-0 center is long and full of awards, records, and prestige and he will be expected to be the savior both on and off the ice for this franchise that finished dead last in attendance. 38-year-old Doug Weight returns for the much needed veteran presence and did contribute 21 of his 38 points on the power play last year. Adding a duo of goaltenders (Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron) acquired this off-season will also stabilize the team’s back line.
What Could Make Them Go Boom: When the owner comes out and says he regrets buying the team and then threatens to move the team in your offseason because of problems updating an old and outdated stadium, you cannot consider this a booming franchise. Though it was nice to see 10,000 fans come out to watch the selection of Tavares, it is not a good sign the Wang is playing preseason games in Kansas City as the Lighthouse Project continues to battle on. I mention all the off-ice issues with this team because it affects the on ice talent. With the uncertainty and financial woes of this team, they are forced to play young and inexpensive players. Tavares should help the offense but, now with the injury to Kyle Okposo, there is not much depth behind him.
Player to Watch: I think I have talked enough about Tavres in this preview, so let’s turn our focus towards another first round pick that is going to play a prominent role on this team, Kyle Okposo. Okposo was selected 7th overall in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft and left school early to make an immediate scoring impact for the Islanders. The 21-year-old center/winger led the team with 18 goals last season and will be looked upon to improve on that number. His season did not start on a good note as he was carted off the ice on a stretcher after receiving a devastating open ice hit from Dion Phaneuf. He was diagnosed with a mild concussion and the Islanders organization hope there is no lingering effects on a player that they are counting on so heavily this season.
Prediction: Tavares will be “as advertised” for this team and, as long as Okposo’s injury does not linger, they will have to be better offensively. Both goalies feel they have something to prove to the league that has told them they are not good enough to start for a contending team. I could see the Islanders turning one or both goaltenders into draft picks at the trade deadline, but beyond hoarding more picks, and Tavares finally playing in the NHL, there is not much more to be excited about on Long Island.

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